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Crude Oil Rebound Stalls, US Dollar Struggling to Build Higher

Crude Oil Rebound Stalls, US Dollar Struggling to Build Higher

2014-07-22 04:23:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Struggling to Breach Familiar Resistance
  • S&P 500 Inching Lower After Topping Sub-2000.00
  • Crude Oil Rebound Stalls Below $104/Barrel Level

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are struggling to build upward having reversed higher as expected after producing a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. Buyers are testing resistance in the 10442-56 area, marked by the July 3 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 10513. Alternatively, a below rising trend line support at 10426 targets the July 9 low at 10392, followed by a triple bottom in the 10354-75 area.

Crude Oil Rebound Stalls, US Dollar Struggling to Build Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are begrudgingly inching lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-April – now at 1958.50 – exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1938.50. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1977.70 opens the door for a challenge of the July 3 high at 1985.90, followed by the 38.2% level at 1995.80.

Crude Oil Rebound Stalls, US Dollar Struggling to Build Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have mounted a corrective recovery after turning downward as expected. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1320.34 on a daily closing basis initially exposes the 14.6% level at 1329.78. Alternatively, a move below the 38.2% level at 1305.3 opens the door for a test of the 50% Fib at 1292.66.

Crude Oil Rebound Stalls, US Dollar Struggling to Build Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – A rapid recovery has stalled below the $104/barrel figure. A break below support at 102.65, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, on daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 101.87. Near-term resistance is at 103.91, the July 18 high.

Crude Oil Rebound Stalls, US Dollar Struggling to Build Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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