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US Dollar Aiming Higher After Pullback, Crude Oil Hits 2-Month Low

US Dollar Aiming Higher After Pullback, Crude Oil Hits 2-Month Low

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Aiming to Move Higher After Correction
  • S&P 500 Pullback Still Stuck at Chart Support Level
  • Crude Oil Drops to 2-Month Low, Approaches $100

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at support set from October 2013. A shallow pullback looks corrective in the context of the upside breakout that cleared resistance at the top of a falling channel set from early June. A daily close above resistance at 10431, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, targets the 50% level at 10452. Alternatively, a turn below triple bottom support in the 10354-75 area targets a multi-year horizontal pivot in play since August 2010 at 10306.

US Dollar Aiming Higher After Pullback, Crude Oil Hits 2-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are edging lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern at the top of a rising channel set from mid-April. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1960.10 on a daily closing basis exposes 1944.20-46.80 area, marked by the channel floor and the 23.6% level. Near-term resistance is at 1985.90, the July 3 high, followed by the underside of a previously broken trend line at 1989.80.

US Dollar Aiming Higher After Pullback, Crude Oil Hits 2-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke upward out of a consolidation range, with buyers now testing resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1343.20. A move above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1354.20. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum however and hints a reversal lower may be ahead. A reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1329.58 aims for the July 3 low at 1307.58.

US Dollar Aiming Higher After Pullback, Crude Oil Hits 2-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices renewed their push downward, breaking below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 101.36. Sellers now aim to challenge the $100.00 figure, followed by the 50% level at 99.42. A push below the latter level opens the way for a test of the 61.8% Fib at 97.49. Alternatively, a turn back above 101.36 eyes the 23.6% retracement at 103.76.

US Dollar Aiming Higher After Pullback, Crude Oil Hits 2-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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