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Gold Looks Vulnerable, SPX 500 Turns Lower on Topping Chart Setup

Gold Looks Vulnerable, SPX 500 Turns Lower on Topping Chart Setup

2014-07-09 05:18:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Pullback Looks Corrective, Gains Expected
  • S&P 500 Declines After Showing Bearish Chart Pattern
  • Gold at Risk of Downturn, Crude Oil Stalls at Support

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at support set from October 2013. A shallow pullback looks corrective in the context of the upside breakout. A daily close above resistance at 10431, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, targets the 50% level at 10452. Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fib at 10405 clears the way for a challenge of the 14.6% retracement at 10389.

Gold Looks Vulnerable, SPX 500 Turns Lower on Topping Chart Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices fell as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern at the top of a rising channel set from mid-April. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1960.10 on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 1944.20. Near-term trend line support-turned-resistance is at 1977.90, followed by the July 3 highat 1985.90.

Gold Looks Vulnerable, SPX 500 Turns Lower on Topping Chart Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling above support at 1311.47, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. This barrier is reinforced by a rising trend line set from early June (1315.30). Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. A break downward on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 1297.85. Near-term resistance is at 1333.47, the July 1 high.

Gold Looks Vulnerable, SPX 500 Turns Lower on Topping Chart Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 103.19, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, having extended downward after taking out a rising trend line set from the May 1 low. A further push lower sees the next level of support at 102.13, the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 104.24 aims for the 23.6% expansion at 105.54.

Gold Looks Vulnerable, SPX 500 Turns Lower on Topping Chart Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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