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US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

2014-07-03 05:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Attempts to Bounce from Key Chart Support
  • S&P 500 Continues to Edge Higher Toward 2000 Mark
  • Crude Oil Breaks Support, Declines to Three-Week Low

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to launch a recovery after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above double bottom support set from October 2013. A daily close above resistance at 10405, the intersection of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a recently broken trend line set from July 2011, exposes a falling channel top at 10419. This is followed by the 38.2% retracement at 10431. Alternatively, a break below the outer layer of double bottom support at 10354 exposes the 61.8% Fib expansion at 10302.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are stalling after putting in another record high, with buyers aiming to challenge resistance at 1981.50 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by a rising channel top at 1989.30. A daily close above the latter level clears the way for a move the psychologically significant 2,000 figure and the 38.2% Fib at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% level at 1967.20 aims for the June 26 low at 1944.10.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling ahead of resistance at 1334.01, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A break higher on a daily closing basis exposes the 76.4% level at 1356.16. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum however. A turn back below support at 1316.10, the 50% Fib, exposes the 1300/oz figure and the 38.2% retracement at 1298.19.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing below support at 104.24, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, after taking out a rising trend line set from the May 1 low. A further push downward sees the next level of support at 103.19, the 50% level. Alternatively, a reversal above the trend line at 105.11 exposes the 23.6% Fib at 105.54.

US Dollar Attempts to Bounce, Crude Oil Sinks to Three-Week Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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