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US Dollar Probing Key Support as SPX 500 Sets New Record High

US Dollar Probing Key Support as SPX 500 Sets New Record High

2014-07-02 04:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Sellers Threaten Key Double Bottom Support
  • S&P 500 Renews Upward Push, Sets New Record High
  • Gold Rally Stalls, Crude Oil Range-Bound Above $105

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are trying to breach a double bottom in play since October 2013 after breaking a trend line set from July 2011. Near-term support is at 10364, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below that targets the 10354-9 area marked by the double bottom’s outer layer and the floor of a falling channel set from early June. Alternatively, a move above resistance 10382, the 61.8% level, aims for the 50% Fib at 10397.

US Dollar Probing Key Support as SPX 500 Sets New Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices pushed to another record high, with buyers aiming to challenge resistance at 1981.50 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by a rising channel top at 1987.40. A daily close above the latter level clears the way for a move the psychologically significant 2,000 figure and the 38.2% Fib at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% level at 1967.20 aims for the June 26 low at 1944.10.

US Dollar Probing Key Support as SPX 500 Sets New Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher after oscillating in a narrow range for over a week, taking out resistance at 1321.64 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers now aim to challenge the 50% level at 1346.78, with a further push above that eyeing the 61.8% Fib at 1371.93. Negative RSI divergence warns upside momentum may be short-lived however. A turn back below 1321.64 exposes the 1300/oz figure, followed by the 1277.00-90 zone bracketed by the April 1 low and the 23.6% expansion.

US Dollar Probing Key Support as SPX 500 Sets New Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are in consolidation mode below resistance at 106.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion.A daily close above this barrier initially targets the 38.2% level at 107.99. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 105.19, marked by a rising trend line set from early May and the March 3 high, exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 104.24.

US Dollar Probing Key Support as SPX 500 Sets New Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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