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Gold Breaks Higher But Upside Follow-Through May Prove Lacking

Gold Breaks Higher But Upside Follow-Through May Prove Lacking

2014-07-01 06:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Hints at Key Reversal with Support Break
  • S&P 500 Remains Locked in Familiar Trading Range
  • Gold Breaks Resistance But Follow-Through Suspect

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may have initiated a substantial downward reversal after prices broke below a trend guiding the uptrend since July 2011. Sellers are now testing the 10375-79 area, marked by a double bottom and the floor of a falling channel set from early June. A daily close below this barrier would initially expose the June 2012 high at 10323. The trend line – now at 10404 – has been recast as near-term resistance. A move back above that clears the way for a test of the channel top at 10434.

Gold Breaks Higher But Upside Follow-Through May Prove Lacking

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices turned lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence, but the move lower was swiftly cut short at support marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement (1944.50). Positioning has now taken on a consolidative tone, but bearish overtones remain. A daily close below support initially targets the 23.6% level at 1930.20. Alternatively, a reversal above the June 24 high at 1967.60 aims for a rising channel top at 1984.80.

Gold Breaks Higher But Upside Follow-Through May Prove Lacking

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher after oscillating in a narrow range for over a week, taking out resistance at 1321.64 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers now aim to challenge the 50% level at 1346.78, with a further push above that eyeing the 61.8% Fib at 1371.93. Negative RSI divergence warns upside momentum may be short-lived however. A turn back below 1321.64 exposes the 1300/oz figure, followed by the 1277.00-90 zone bracketed by the April 1 low and the 23.6% expansion.

Gold Breaks Higher But Upside Follow-Through May Prove Lacking

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in consolidation mode below resistance at 106.74, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion.A daily close above this barrier initially targets the 38.2% level at 108.04. Alternatively, a reversal below support in the 104.84-105.19 area – marked by a rising trend line set from early May and the March 3 high – exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 104.24.

Gold Breaks Higher But Upside Follow-Through May Prove Lacking

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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