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US Dollar Perched at 3-Year Support, Crude Oil Drifting Downward

US Dollar Perched at 3-Year Support, Crude Oil Drifting Downward

2014-06-30 07:09:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Perched at Three-Year Uptrend Support
  • S&P 500 in Consolidation Mode Below 2000 Level
  • Crude Oil Drifting Lower, Gold Still Range-Bound

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in a precarious position as prices continue to hover above multi-year rising trend support set from July 2011. This barrier (now at 10401) is reinforced by a falling Wedge formation bottom. A daily close below that would suggest a major reversal is in progress and initially expose double bottom support at 10375, followed by the June 2012 high at 10323.Wedge resistance is at 10440, with a move above that exposing the 10474-95 cluster. The next topside barrier after that stands at 10531, May 28 high.

US Dollar Perched at 3-Year Support, Crude Oil Drifting Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices turned lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence. Sellers are testing the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1944.50, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1930.20. Alternatively, a reversal above the June 24 high at 1967.60 aims for a rising channel top at 1982.70.

US Dollar Perched at 3-Year Support, Crude Oil Drifting Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water after launching sharply higher last week to challenge resistance at 1321.64, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 50% level at 1346.78. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1300/oz figure aims for the 1277.00-90 area, marked by April 1 low and the 23.6% Fib.

US Dollar Perched at 3-Year Support, Crude Oil Drifting Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in consolidation mode below resistance at 107.19, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion.A daily close above this barrier initially targets the 38.2% level at 108.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib retracementat 105.54 clears the way for a test of the 104.24-73 area, marked by a formerly broken triple top, the 38.2% threshold and a rising trend line set from early May.

US Dollar Perched at 3-Year Support, Crude Oil Drifting Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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