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US Dollar Still in a Precarious Position, SPX 500 May Correct Lower

US Dollar Still in a Precarious Position, SPX 500 May Correct Lower

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in a precarious position as prices test multi-year trend support set from July 2011. This barrier (now at 10417) is reinforced by a falling channel bottom at 10409. A daily close below that would suggest a major reversal is in progress and initially expose double bottom support at 10375, followed by the June 2012 high at 10323.Resistance remains in the 10474-95 area, with a move above that clearing the way for another challenge of the May 28 high at 10531.

US Dollar Still in a Precarious Position, SPX 500 May Correct Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices notched up yet another record high but a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 1961.50, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, warns a pullback may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downward scenario. A turn downward sees support at 1947.80, the 23.6% level, with a break below that targeting the 14.6% expansion at 1939.30. Alternatively, a push through resistance exposes the 50% Fib at 1972.60.

US Dollar Still in a Precarious Position, SPX 500 May Correct Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are trading water after launching sharply higher last week to challenge resistance at 1321.64, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 50% level at 1346.78. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1300/oz figure aims for the 1277.00-90 area, marked by April 1 low and the 23.6% Fib.

US Dollar Still in a Precarious Position, SPX 500 May Correct Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water after pulling back from resistance above the 107.00 figure as expected.A daily close above the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 107.32 targets the 123.6% level at 108.68. Alternatively, a turn below support at 105.96, the 76.4% Fib, initially aims for the 61.8% level at 105.12.

US Dollar Still in a Precarious Position, SPX 500 May Correct Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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