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US Dollar at the Precipice of Major Breakdown, SPX 500 Vulnerable

US Dollar at the Precipice of Major Breakdown, SPX 500 Vulnerable

2014-06-20 05:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Flirting with Overturning Three-Year Uptrend
  • S&P 500 Vulnerable After Setting Another Record High
  • Gold Soars to Retake $1300/oz Figure, Crude Oil Stalling

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to fall in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement, probing below multi-year trend support (10434). This barrier is reinforced by a falling channel bottom at 10419. Breaking below that on a daily closing basis would suggest a major reversal is in progress and expose a double bottom at 10375.Resistance remains in the 10474-95 area, with a turn above that opening the door for another test of the May 28 high at 10531.

US Dollar at the Precipice of Major Breakdown, SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices advanced to yet another record high, eying resistance at 1961.50 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that aims for the top of a rising channel set from mid-April at 1970.70. Emerging negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upward momentum however and hints a reversal lower may be in the cards ahead. A turn below the 23.6% level at 1947.80 targets the 14.6% Fib at 1939.30.

US Dollar at the Precipice of Major Breakdown, SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched sharply higher to test resistance at 1321.64, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 50% level at 1346.78. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1300/oz figure aims for the 1277.00-90 area, marked by April 1 low and the 23.6% Fib.

US Dollar at the Precipice of Major Breakdown, SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected following a series of back-to-back indecision candles.Support comes in at 105.96, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A reversal below that initially aims for the 61.8% level at 105.12.Alternatively, a move above resistanceat 107.32, the 100% Fib, targets the 123.6% level at 108.68.

US Dollar at the Precipice of Major Breakdown, SPX 500 Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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