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Gold Selling Expected Ahead, US Dollar Uptrend Still Intact for Now

Gold Selling Expected Ahead, US Dollar Uptrend Still Intact for Now

2014-06-19 06:38:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower after the FOMC policy announcement but long-term trend support from July 2011 (10431) remains intact. This barrier is reinforced by a falling channel bottom at 10424. Breaking below that on a daily closing basis would suggest a major reversal in progress and expose double bottom support at 10375.Resistance remains in the 10474-95 area, with a turn above that clearing the way for another challenge of the May 28 high at 10531.

Gold Selling Expected Ahead, US Dollar Uptrend Still Intact for Now

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices accelerated upward, setting a new record high. Near-term resistance lines up at 1961.50, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that aiming for the top of a rising channel set from mid-April at 1968.50. Emerging negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upward momentum however and hints a reversal lower may be in the cards ahead. A turn below the 23.6% level at 1947.80 targets the 14.6% Fib at 1939.30.

Gold Selling Expected Ahead, US Dollar Uptrend Still Intact for Now

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling below support-turned-resistance at 1277.00, the underside of a recently broken Triangle formation, but a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern continues to argue for weakness ahead. Near-term support is at 1248.96, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the June 3 low at 1240.23 and the 38.2% level at 1226.81. Alternatively, a move above 1277.00 eyes the Triangle top at 1284.39.

Gold Selling Expected Ahead, US Dollar Uptrend Still Intact for Now

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected following a series of back-to-back indecision candles.Support comes in at 105.96, the 76.4% % Fibonacci expansion. A reversal below that initially aims for the 61.8% level at 105.12.Alternatively, a move above resistanceat 107.32, the 100% Fib, targets the 123.6% level at 108.68.

Gold Selling Expected Ahead, US Dollar Uptrend Still Intact for Now

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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