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US Dollar Bounces, Crude Oil and Gold Flat-Lining Before FOMC

US Dollar Bounces, Crude Oil and Gold Flat-Lining Before FOMC

2014-06-18 06:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices corrected cautiously higher ahead of the upcoming FOMC monetary policy announcement. Resistance lines up in the 10474-95 area, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for another test of the May 28 high at 10531. Support comes in at a pivotal rising trend line set from July 2011, now at 10431. A breach of this barrier would suggest a major reversal is in play and initially clear the way for a challenge of double bottom support at 10375.

US Dollar Bounces, Crude Oil and Gold Flat-Lining Before FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices turned lower as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick.Near-term support is at 1924.10, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1904.50. This barrier is reinforced by the bottom of a rising channel guiding the index’s uptrend since mid-April (1910.80). Resistance is at 1955.90, the June 9 high, followed by the channel top at 1966.30.

US Dollar Bounces, Crude Oil and Gold Flat-Lining Before FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are moving lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at 1277.00, the underside of a recently broken Triangle formation. Near-term support is at 1248.96, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the June 3 low at 1240.23 and the 38.2% level at 1226.81. Alternatively, a move above 1277.00 eyes yesterday’s swing high at 1284.77, followed by the Triangle top at 1285.43.

US Dollar Bounces, Crude Oil and Gold Flat-Lining Before FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling below resistance at 107.32, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, after jumping to the strongest level since mid-September 2013 late last week. Back-to-back indecision candles warn of ebbing bullish momentum and hint a reversal may be ahead. Support comes in at 105.96, the 76.4% Fib. A reversal below that initially aims for the 61.8% expansion at 105.12. Alternatively, a move above resistance targets the 123.6% level at 108.68.

US Dollar Bounces, Crude Oil and Gold Flat-Lining Before FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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