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US Dollar Drop Pauses Before Key Threshold, SPX 500 Finds Support

US Dollar Drop Pauses Before Key Threshold, SPX 500 Finds Support

2014-06-16 05:18:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Selloff Slows Ahead of Trend-Setting Support
  • S&P 500 Downswing Finds Interim Chart Support Level
  • Crude Oil Rally Slows Before $108, Gold Edging Higher

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused for a breather after last week’s aggressive downturn. A move below resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area has exposed pivotal rising trend line support set from July 2011 (now at 10429). A breach beneath this barrier on a daily closing basis clears the way for a challenge of a double bottom at 10375. Alternatively, a reversal back above 10495 opens the door for another test of 10531, the May 28 high.

US Dollar Drop Pauses Before Key Threshold, SPX 500 Finds Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices turned lower as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick.Near-term support is at 1924.10, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1904.50. This barrier is reinforced by the bottom of a rising channel guiding the index’s uptrend since mid-April (1906.70). Resistance is at 1955.90, the June 9 high, followed by the channel top at 1963.30.

US Dollar Drop Pauses Before Key Threshold, SPX 500 Finds Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to recover, with buyers testing resistance in the 1276.04-77.00 area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the underside of a recently broken Triangle pattern. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the Triangle top at 1287.65, followed by the 38.2% level at 1298.19. Near-term support is at 1262.38, the 14.6% Fib, followed by the June 3 low at 1240.23.

US Dollar Drop Pauses Before Key Threshold, SPX 500 Finds Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched dramatically higher, hitting the strongest level since mid-September 2013. Near-term resistance is at 107.32, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis targeting the 123.6% level at 108.68. Support comes in at 105.96, the 76.4% Fib. A reversal below that initially aims for the 61.8% expansion at 105.12.

US Dollar Drop Pauses Before Key Threshold, SPX 500 Finds Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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