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Crude Oil Soars to 10-Month High, SPX 500 and US Dollar Fall Together

Crude Oil Soars to 10-Month High, SPX 500 and US Dollar Fall Together

2014-06-13 05:14:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower, putting in question the fate of the upside breakout secured in mid-May. Sellers have taken out resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area, exposing pivotal rising trend line support set from July 2011 (now at 10426). A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis targets a double bottom at 10375. Alternatively, a reversal back above 10495 opens the door for another test of 10531, the May 28 high.

Crude Oil Soars to 10-Month High, SPX 500 and US Dollar Fall Together

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices turned lower as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick.Near-term support is at 1920.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1908.90. This barrier is reinforced by the bottom of a rising channel guiding the index’s uptrend since mid-April. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% Fib at 1933.70 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% retracement at 1942.20.

Crude Oil Soars to 10-Month High, SPX 500 and US Dollar Fall Together

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continued to recover, with buyers aiming to challenge resistance in the 1276.04-77.00 area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the underside of a recently broken Triangle pattern. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the Triangle top at 1288.78, followed by the 38.2% level at 1298.19. Near-term support is at 1262.38, the 14.6% Fib, followed by the June 3 low at 1240.23.

Crude Oil Soars to 10-Month High, SPX 500 and US Dollar Fall Together

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched dramatically higher, hitting the strongest level since mid-September 2013. Near-term resistance is at 107.32, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that targeting the 123.6% level at 108.68. Support comes in at 105.96, the 76.4% Fib. A reversal below that initially aims for the 61.8% expansion at 105.12.

Crude Oil Soars to 10-Month High, SPX 500 and US Dollar Fall Together

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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