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Gold Attempts Recovery, US Dollar Outlook Still Favors the Upside

Gold Attempts Recovery, US Dollar Outlook Still Favors the Upside

2014-06-06 06:36:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Outlook Favors Renewed Gains After Pullback
  • S&P 500 Continues to Push Higher Toward 2000 Figure
  • Gold Bounces, Crude Oil Prices in Consolidation Mode

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices corrected lower but overall positioning continues to favor strength after prices set a double bottom and cleared channel resistance guiding the down trend from January. The index is testing resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal back below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10410. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region.

Gold Attempts Recovery, US Dollar Outlook Still Favors the Upside

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices broke resistance at 1933.00, the 76.4%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 100% level at 1954.90. A further push beyond that targets the 123.6% Fib at 1976.80.Alternatively, a reversal back below 1933.00 clears the way for a descent to 1919.40, marked by the 61.8% expansion.

Gold Attempts Recovery, US Dollar Outlook Still Favors the Upside

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. A break below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansionat 1243.24 exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.

Gold Attempts Recovery, US Dollar Outlook Still Favors the Upside

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support at a rising trend line support set from the May 1 low to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 102.11. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 101.38. Alternatively, a reversal back above the trend line (now recast as resistance at 103.54) targets a downward-sloping barrier connecting major swing highs since early March, currency at 104.26.

Gold Attempts Recovery, US Dollar Outlook Still Favors the Upside

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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