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Gold and Crude Oil Treading Water, US Dollar Pressuring May High

Gold and Crude Oil Treading Water, US Dollar Pressuring May High

2014-06-05 05:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Continues to Stall Below the May Swing High
  • S&P 500 Sets Another Record as Upward March Resumes
  • Gold, Crude Oil Treading Water at Familiar Chart Levels

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered following a brief correction lower from two-month highs. Positioning has favored the upside after prices set a double bottom and broke the down trend from January. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region. Support is in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10414.

Gold and Crude Oil Treading Water, US Dollar Pressuring May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices broke resistance at 1919.40, the 61.8%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 1933.00. A further push beyond that targets the 100% Fib at 1954.90.Alternatively, a reversal back below1919.40 clears the way for a descent to 1908.40, marked by the 50% expansion.

Gold and Crude Oil Treading Water, US Dollar Pressuring May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. Sellers are testing support at 1243.24, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.

Gold and Crude Oil Treading Water, US Dollar Pressuring May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support at a rising trend line support set from the May 1 low to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 102.11. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 101.38. Alternatively, a reversal back above the trend line (now recast as resistance at 103.33) targets a downward-sloping barrier connecting major swing highs since early March, currency at 104.28.

Gold and Crude Oil Treading Water, US Dollar Pressuring May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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