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US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains, Gold Drops to Four-Month Low

US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains, Gold Drops to Four-Month Low

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains After Corrective Pullback
  • S&P 500 Drifts Upward, Setting Yet Another Record High
  • Gold Falls to 4-Month Low, Crude Oil Finds Chart Support

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back after hitting the highest level in nearly two months. Overall positioning continues to favor the upside however after the index set a double bottom and cleared falling channel resistance set from January. The greenback is now testing resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal back below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10424. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region.

US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains, Gold Drops to Four-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance at 1919.40, the 61.8%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 1933.00. A further push beyond that targets the 100% Fib at 1954.90.Alternatively, a reversal back below1919.40 clears the way for a descent to 1908.40, marked by the 50% expansion.

US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains, Gold Drops to Four-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. Sellers are testing support at 1243.24, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.

US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains, Gold Drops to Four-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from trend line resistance set from early March to test support at 102.59, marked by an upward-sloping barrier set from early May. A break downward initially exposes the 38.2% level at 102.11. Trend line resistance is now at 104.34, followed by swing highs in the 104.49-105.19 area.

US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains, Gold Drops to Four-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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