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US Dollar Uptrend Intact After Pullback, Gold Selling Expected to Resume

US Dollar Uptrend Intact After Pullback, Gold Selling Expected to Resume

2014-05-30 06:38:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Pulls Back but the Uptrend Looks to be Intact
  • S&P 500 Sets Yet Another Record High as Rally Resumes
  • Gold Stalling After Breakdown, Crude Oil Finds Support

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices corrected lower but overall positioning continues to favor strength after prices set a double bottom and cleared channel resistance guiding the down trend from January. The index is testing resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal back below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10427. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region.

US Dollar Uptrend Intact After Pullback, Gold Selling Expected to Resume

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance at 1908.40, the 50%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 61.8% level at 1919.40. A further push beyond that targets the 76.4% Fib at 1933.00.Alternatively, a reversal back below1908.40 clears the way for a descent to the 1897.40-1899.10 area, marked by the 38.2% expansion and the April 4 high.

US Dollar Uptrend Intact After Pullback, Gold Selling Expected to Resume

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. Sellers now aim to challenge support at 1243.24, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.

US Dollar Uptrend Intact After Pullback, Gold Selling Expected to Resume

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from trend line resistance set from early March to test support at 103.02, marked by an upward-sloping barrier set from early May and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break downward exposes the 38.2% level at 102.11. Trend line resistance is now at 104.46.

US Dollar Uptrend Intact After Pullback, Gold Selling Expected to Resume

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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