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Core PCE prints at 1.6% v/s expectation of 1.4% - PMI reports are on deck

Crude Oil Stalls Near 104 Level, SPX 500 Poised to Test 1900 Again

Crude Oil Stalls Near 104 Level, SPX 500 Poised to Test 1900 Again

2014-05-23 04:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Steadily Grinding Through Resistance Levels
  • S&P 500 Within Striking Distance of 1900 Once Again
  • Crude Oil Stalls Near $104, Gold Continues to Flat-Line

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear to have set a major double bottom at 10375, the October 2013 bottom. An upward trend change is being hinted by a break above resistance at the top of a falling channel that had guided the downward trajectory since the beginning of the year. Resistance is in the 10474-95 area, with a break above that clearing the way for a move to challenge the 10589-619 region. The channel top, now at 10446, has been recast as near-term support.

Crude Oil Stalls Near 104 Level, SPX 500 Poised to Test 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance in the in the 1883.80-88.60 region, bracketed by the March 7 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. The bulls now aim to challenge of the 1897.40-1899.10 zone, the site of the 38.2% level and the April 4 peak, with a break above that exposing the 50% Fib at 1908.40. Alternatively, a move back below 1883.80 targets a rising trend line set from late April, now at 1869.50.

Crude Oil Stalls Near 104 Level, SPX 500 Poised to Test 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1303.89-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom.

Crude Oil Stalls Near 104 Level, SPX 500 Poised to Test 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 104.24, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier initially exposes the 100% level at 105.16. Near-term support is at 103.67, the 61.8% Fib, with a move back below that eyeing the 50% expansion at 103.20.

Crude Oil Stalls Near 104 Level, SPX 500 Poised to Test 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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