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US Dollar Trend May Have Reversed, SPX 500 Slumps to Monthly Support

US Dollar Trend May Have Reversed, SPX 500 Slumps to Monthly Support

2014-05-21 05:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Chart Setup Hints at Key Bullish Reversal
  • S&P 500 Sinks Back to Monthly Trend Line Support
  • Crude Oil Jumps to One-Month High, Gold Still Flat

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices appear to have set a major double bottom at 10375, the October 2013 floor. An upward trend change is being hinted by a break above resistance at the top of a falling channel that had guided the downward trajectory since the beginning of the year. Resistance is in the 10474-95 area, with a break above that clearing the way for a move to challenge the 10589-619 region. The channel top, now at 10451, has been recast as near-term support.

US Dollar Trend May Have Reversed, SPX 500 Slumps to Monthly Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at a rising trend line set from late April, now at 1869.00. A break downward exposes the 1850.10-61.90 area, marked by recent swing lows. Resistance is in the 1883.80-88.60 region, bracketed by the March 7 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A push through that clears the way for a challenge of the 1897.40-1899.10 zone, the site of the 38.2% level and the April 4 peak.

US Dollar Trend May Have Reversed, SPX 500 Slumps to Monthly Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1305.69-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom.

US Dollar Trend May Have Reversed, SPX 500 Slumps to Monthly Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are pushing higher to set sights on resistance at 103.20, the intersection of a rising trend line set from mid-March and the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier initially exposes the 61.8% level at 103.37. Near-term support is at 102.74, the 38.2% Fib, with a move back below that eyeing the 23.6% expansion at 102.17.

US Dollar Trend May Have Reversed, SPX 500 Slumps to Monthly Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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