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US Dollar Capped at Resistance, SPX 500 Bounce Looks Corrective

US Dollar Capped at Resistance, SPX 500 Bounce Looks Corrective

2014-05-19 04:27:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Still Stuck at 2014 Down Trend Resistance
  • S&P 500 Bounce Looks Corrective for the Time Being
  • Crude Oil, Gold Consolidating Near Familiar Levels

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices may be in the process of confirming a double bottom at 10375, the October 22 close. Confirmation of an upward reversal pattern requires a breach of resistance at 10455, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the benchmark currency downward since the beginning of the year. A daily close above this barrier initially targets horizontal support-turned-resistance at 10495.

US Dollar Capped at Resistance, SPX 500 Bounce Looks Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed sharply lower, taking out the bottom of a rising channel and exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1866.60. A break below this boundary on a daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1855.60. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1880.20, the intersection of the channel bottom and the 23.6% Fib, exposes the April 4 high at 1899.10.

US Dollar Capped at Resistance, SPX 500 Bounce Looks Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1307.40-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom.

US Dollar Capped at Resistance, SPX 500 Bounce Looks Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are retesting rising trend line support-turned-resistance set from mid-March. Initial support is at 101.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 100.23. Alternatively, a move back above the trend line – now at 102.35 – aims for the May 14 high at 102.61.

US Dollar Capped at Resistance, SPX 500 Bounce Looks Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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