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US Dollar Flirting with Trend Change, SPX 500 Selloff Gains Momentum

US Dollar Flirting with Trend Change, SPX 500 Selloff Gains Momentum

2014-05-16 04:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Continues to Flirt with Trend-Setting Break
  • S&P 500 Selloff Accelerates After Prices Top Sub-1900
  • Crude Oil Falters at Former Support, Gold Still Flat

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices look to be attempting to set a double bottom at 10375, the October 22 close. Confirmation of the upward reversal pattern requires a breach of resistance is at 10458, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the benchmark currency downward since the beginning of the year. A daily close above this barrier initially targets horizontal support-turned-resistance at 10495.

US Dollar Flirting with Trend Change, SPX 500 Selloff Gains Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed sharply lower, taking out the bottom of a rising channel and exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1866.60. A break below this boundary on a daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1855.60. Channel floor support-turned-resistance is now at 1875.50, with a reversal back above that eyeing the 23.6% Fib at 1880.20.

US Dollar Flirting with Trend Change, SPX 500 Selloff Gains Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1307.94-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom.

US Dollar Flirting with Trend Change, SPX 500 Selloff Gains Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged lower following a retest of rising trend line support-turned-resistance set from mid-March. Initial support is at 101.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 100.23. Alternatively, a move back above the trend line – now at 102.27 – aims for the May 14 high at 102.61.

US Dollar Flirting with Trend Change, SPX 500 Selloff Gains Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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