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US Dollar at Make-or-Break Resistance, SPX 500 Rejected at 1900 Again

US Dollar at Make-or-Break Resistance, SPX 500 Rejected at 1900 Again

2014-05-15 02:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Perched at Make-or-Break Chart Resistance
  • S&P 500 Rejected Downward on Another Test of 1900
  • Crude Oil Rebound Pauses Below $103/barrel Figure

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices look to be attempting to set a double bottom at 10375, the October 22 close. Confirmation of the upward reversal pattern requires a breach of resistance is at 10462, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the benchmark currency downward since the beginning of the year. A daily close above this barrier initially targets horizontal support-turned-resistance at 10495.

US Dollar at Make-or-Break Resistance, SPX 500 Rejected at 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. The index pulled back from resistance at 1899.10, the April 4 high, to test rising trend line support at 1883.80. A break below this boundary exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1880.20.

US Dollar at Make-or-Break Resistance, SPX 500 Rejected at 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1309.31-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom, followed by the April 24 low at 1268.40.

US Dollar at Make-or-Break Resistance, SPX 500 Rejected at 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused after shooting higher through resistance at 101.85 marked by the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Buyers are now testing the 61.8% level at 102.58, with a push above that eyeing the underside of a previously broken rising trend line at 103.01. Alternatively, a reversal back below 101.85 eyes the 38.2% Fib at 101.11.

US Dollar at Make-or-Break Resistance, SPX 500 Rejected at 1900 Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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