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US Dollar Bottom Comfirmation Pending, SPX 500 Eyeing 1900 Anew

US Dollar Bottom Comfirmation Pending, SPX 500 Eyeing 1900 Anew

2014-05-13 03:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar: Double Bottom Setup Confirmation Pending
  • S&P 500 Surges to Test Record High Below 1900 Mark
  • Gold, Crude Oil Prices Locked in Consolidation Mode

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices may be in the process of setting a double bottom at 10375, the October 22 close. Initial confirmation requires a breach of resistance is at 10469, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the greenback lower since the beginning of the year. A daily close above this barrier initially targets horizontal support-turned-resistance at 10495.

US Dollar Bottom Comfirmation Pending, SPX 500 Eyeing 1900 Anew

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. The index launched higher to test resistance in the 1898.90-99.10 area marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion and the April 4 high. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 76.4% level at 1910.50. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 1889.60, the 50% Fib, targets the 38.2% expansion at 1880.30.

US Dollar Bottom Comfirmation Pending, SPX 500 Eyeing 1900 Anew

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1310.74-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom, followed by the April 24 low at 1268.40.

US Dollar Bottom Comfirmation Pending, SPX 500 Eyeing 1900 Anew

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating above the psychologically significant $100/barrel figure. Breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 99.67 exposes the 38.2% level at 98.76. Alternatively, a bounce above the 38.2% Fib retracement at 101.11 sees the next upside barrier at 101.85.

US Dollar Bottom Comfirmation Pending, SPX 500 Eyeing 1900 Anew

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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