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US Dollar Trying to Edge Higher, SPX 500 Mired in Consolidation Mode

US Dollar Trying to Edge Higher, SPX 500 Mired in Consolidation Mode

2014-05-09 03:44:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Recovery Slowly Trying to Build Momentum
  • S&P 500 Still Mired in a Familiar Consolidation Range
  • Crude Oil Holding Above $100, Gold Aiming Lower

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are attempting to correct upward after hitting a seven-month low. Near-term resistance is at 10409, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break back above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 10429. Support is at 10389, the 61.8% Fib. A break below that eyes the May 8 low at 10370, followed by the 76.4% Fib at 10364.

US Dollar Trying to Edge Higher, SPX 500 Mired in Consolidation Mode

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Prices are now treading water below the 38.2%Fibonacci expansionat 1880.30. A break upward initially targets the 50%level at 1889.60. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6%Fibat 1868.70 exposes the April 28 low at 1850.10.

US Dollar Trying to Edge Higher, SPX 500 Mired in Consolidation Mode

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1312.26-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom, followed by the April 24 low at 1268.40.

US Dollar Trying to Edge Higher, SPX 500 Mired in Consolidation Mode

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned higher to reclaim a foothold above the $100/barrel figure. Near-term resistance is at 101.04, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that aiming for the 38.2% level at 101.96. Alternatively, a push through support at 100.11 – the 61.8% Fib – exposes the 76.4% expansion at 98.96.

US Dollar Trying to Edge Higher, SPX 500 Mired in Consolidation Mode

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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