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US Dollar Stuck in Narrow Range, Gold Chart Setup Favors Weakness

US Dollar Stuck in Narrow Range, Gold Chart Setup Favors Weakness

2014-05-06 04:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Stuck in Range After Rejection at Channel Top
  • S&P 500 Continues to Tread Water Below April Swing High
  • Gold Chart Setup Favors Weakness Despite Recent Bounce

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are in consolidation mode above support at 10429, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break downward exposes the 50% level at 10409. Alternatively, a break above near-term resistance at 10454 – the 23.6% Fib – targets the top of a falling channel in play since the beginning of the year (now at 10486).

US Dollar Stuck in Narrow Range, Gold Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1870.70 has exposed the 50% level at 1889.70, with a further push beyond that eyeing the 61.8% Fib at 1908.70.Alternatively, a reversal back below 1870.70 targets the 23.6% expansion at 1847.10.

US Dollar Stuck in Narrow Range, Gold Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are approaching resistance at 1318.69, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 38.2% level at 1349.81. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom.

US Dollar Stuck in Narrow Range, Gold Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are turned sharply lower below the 105.00 figure, sinking to challenge support at 98.96 marked by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary initially exposes the 100% level at 97.11. Near-term resistance is at 100.11, the 61.8% Fib, followed by the 50% expansion at 101.04.

US Dollar Stuck in Narrow Range, Gold Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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