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US Dollar Range Persists, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

US Dollar Range Persists, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

2014-03-14 03:46:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Still Looking for Direction in a Choppy Range
  • S&P 500 Breaks Support, Sets Up For Continued Weakness
  • Crude Oil Selloff Pauses Near Support Above $97.00 Mark

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to to tread water in a familiar range between the February 17 low at 10520 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 10599. A push above resistance initially exposes the 50% level at 10629. Alternatively, a drop through support on a daily closing basis targets the 38.2% Fib expansion at 10492.

Forex_US_Dollar_Range_Persists_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Range Persists, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices turned sharply lower, taking out support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-February and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracementat 1853.00. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 1831.00, with a push below that aiming for the 50% Fib at 1813.30. Alternatively, a move back above 1853.00 sees channel support-turned-resistance at 1867.60.

Forex_US_Dollar_Range_Persists_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Range Persists, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1371.70, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at 1385.46. Near-term support is at 1354.66, marked by the 23.6% Fib and a falling trend line set from April 2013. A reversal below that initially targets rising channel resistance-turned-support at 1341.51.

Forex_US_Dollar_Range_Persists_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Range Persists, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – The formation of a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern preceded a turn lower, as expected. Sellers are now approaching support at 97.17, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 50% level at 94.69. Near-term resistance is in the 100.23-73 area, marked by the 23.6% Fib and the December 27 high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Range_Persists_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Range Persists, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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