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US Dollar Recovery Signaled Ahead, SPX 500 Continues to Stall

US Dollar Recovery Signaled Ahead, SPX 500 Continues to Stall

2014-03-11 07:03:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Technical Positioning Hints at Recovery Ahead
  • S&P 500 Still Stalling at Resistance Below 1900 Figure
  • Crude Oil Eyes Support Above $100.00, Gold Top Hinted

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above support at 10520, the February 17 low, hinting a move higher may be ahead. Near-term resistance is at 10599, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that initially exposing the 50% level at 10629.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovery_Signaled_Ahead_SPX_500_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Recovery Signaled Ahead, SPX 500 Continues to Stall

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to tread water below resistance at 1883.80, marked by a rising channel top and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A topside breakout initially targets the channel top at 1891.50, followed by the 50% level at 1899.20. Near-term support is at 1864.80, the 23.6% Fib.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovery_Signaled_Ahead_SPX_500_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Recovery Signaled Ahead, SPX 500 Continues to Stall

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are hinting that a turn lower is ahead after showing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 1313.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 1287.48. Trend line resistance is now at 1354.05.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovery_Signaled_Ahead_SPX_500_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Recovery Signaled Ahead, SPX 500 Continues to Stall

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – The formation of a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern preceded a turn lower, as expected. Prices found interim support in the 100.23-73 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the December 27 high. A break downward targets the 38.2% Fib at 97.17. Rising trend line support-turned-resistance is at 104.06.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovery_Signaled_Ahead_SPX_500_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Recovery Signaled Ahead, SPX 500 Continues to Stall

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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