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US Dollar Finds Interim Support, SPX 500 Rally Stalls Sub-1900

US Dollar Finds Interim Support, SPX 500 Rally Stalls Sub-1900

2014-03-09 22:22:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Selling Pressure Fizzles at February Swing Low
  • S&P 500 Stalling at Resistance Ahead of the 1900 Figure
  • Crude Oil Rebounds at Support, Gold Carving Out a Top

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are stalling at support in the 10520-25 area marked by the February 17 low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion after breaking a rising trend line set from September 2012. A further push downward targets the 50% level at 10497. Alternatively, a reversal back above the trend line (now at 10565) eyes the February 27 high at 10615.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Interim_Support_SPX_500_Rally_Stalls_Sub-1900_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Finds Interim Support, SPX 500 Rally Stalls Sub-1900

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to tread water below resistance at 1883.80, marked by a rising channel top and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A topside breakout initially targets the 50% level at 1899.20. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 1864.80, the 23.6% Fib, exposes for the channel bottom at 1855.30.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Interim_Support_SPX_500_Rally_Stalls_Sub-1900_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Finds Interim Support, SPX 500 Rally Stalls Sub-1900

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are hinting that a turn lower is ahead after showing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 1313.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 1287.48. Trend line resistance is now at 1354.46.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Interim_Support_SPX_500_Rally_Stalls_Sub-1900_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Finds Interim Support, SPX 500 Rally Stalls Sub-1900

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – The formation of a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern preceded a turn lower, as expected. Prices found interim support in the 100.23-73 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the December 27 high, and are moving to retest the trend line (now at 103.79). A break above back above this boundary targets the March 3 high at 105.19. Alternatively, a reversal below 100.23 aims for the 38.2% Fib at 97.17.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Interim_Support_SPX_500_Rally_Stalls_Sub-1900_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Finds Interim Support, SPX 500 Rally Stalls Sub-1900

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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