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US Dollar Breaks Critical Support, SPX 500 Keeps Grinding Higher

US Dollar Breaks Critical Support, SPX 500 Keeps Grinding Higher

2014-03-07 06:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Breaks Key Support, Warns of Trend Change
  • S&P 500 Continues to Grind Higher, Sets Upside Record
  • Gold at Risk of Losses, Crude Oil Finds Interim Support

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices broke below rising trend line set from September 2012, hinting the medium-term trend has changed gears. Prices are testing initial support at 10525, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 50% level at 10497. Alternatively, a reversal back above the trend line (now at 10563) eyes the February 27 high at 10615.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Critical_Support_SPX_500_Keeps_Grinding_Higher_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Breaks Critical Support, SPX 500 Keeps Grinding Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are testing resistance at 1883.80 marked b the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and a rising channel top. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at 1899.20. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 1864.80, the 23.6% Fib, aims for the channel bottom at 1853.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Critical_Support_SPX_500_Keeps_Grinding_Higher_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Breaks Critical Support, SPX 500 Keeps Grinding Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1313.14 exposes the 38.2% level at 1287.48. Trend line resistance is now at 1354.74.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Critical_Support_SPX_500_Keeps_Grinding_Higher_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Breaks Critical Support, SPX 500 Keeps Grinding Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after forming a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Sellers are testing support at 101.73, the December 27 high, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 99.85. A break below the latter level exposes the 50% Fib at 98.20. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% retracement at 101.89 eyes rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 103.43.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Critical_Support_SPX_500_Keeps_Grinding_Higher_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Breaks Critical Support, SPX 500 Keeps Grinding Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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