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Forex: US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Attempts Recovery

Forex: US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Attempts Recovery

2014-03-04 06:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Still Looking for Direction at Familiar Trend Line
  • S&P 500 Finds Interim Support, Attempts to Launch Rebound
  • Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Be Readying to Reverse Lower

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to tread water above support marked by a rising trend line set from September 2012. A break above resistance at 10614, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10673. Trend line support is now at 10557, with a reversal below that eyeing the February 17 low at 10520.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Attempts_Recovery_body_Picture_5.png, Forex: US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Attempts Recovery

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices broke back below 1851.40, the 2013 high, exposing the bottom of a rising channel set 1843.80. A further below this barrier eyes an upward-sloping trend line set 1815.50. Alternatively a reversal above 1851.40 aims for the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1863.60.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Attempts_Recovery_body_Picture_6.png, Forex: US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Attempts Recovery

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are moving to test resistance at 1358.83, marked by a falling trend line set from April 2013 and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this boundary initially exposes the 38.2% level at 1383.12. Negative RSI divergence warns of a turn lower however. Reversing below the 14.6% Fib at 1343.85 eyes the February 28 low at 1319.55.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Attempts_Recovery_body_Picture_7.png, Forex: US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Attempts Recovery

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 103.89, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 38.2% level at 105.67. A further push beyond that targets the 50% Fib at 107.11. Negative RSI divergence hints at ebbing upside momentum and wars a turn lower may be ahead. Reversing back below 103.83 sees rising trend line support at 102.45.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Attempts_Recovery_body_Picture_8.png, Forex: US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Attempts Recovery

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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