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Dollar Clinging to Trend Support, SPX 500 Recoils Sharply Lower

Dollar Clinging to Trend Support, SPX 500 Recoils Sharply Lower

2014-03-03 01:27:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Continues to Cling to 17-Month Trend Support
  • S&P 500 Recoils Downward After Setting New Record High
  • Crude Oil Hits 5-Month High, Gold at Familiar Resistance

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to consolidate above support at a rising trend line set from September 2012. A break above resistance at 10614, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10673. Trend line support is now at 10554, with a reversal below that eyeing the February 17 low at 10520.

Forex_Dollar_Clinging_to_Trend_Support_SPX_500_Recoils_Sharply_Lower__body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Clinging to Trend Support, SPX 500 Recoils Sharply Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are testing below resistance-turned-support at 1851.40, the 2013 high, after recoiling from resistance at 1863.60 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below rising channel support at 1840.90 targets an upward-sloping trend line set 1814.40. Alternatively a reversal above 1863.60 aims for the intersection of the 38.2% level and the channel top at 1881.30.

Forex_Dollar_Clinging_to_Trend_Support_SPX_500_Recoils_Sharply_Lower__body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Clinging to Trend Support, SPX 500 Recoils Sharply Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013, hinting at a turn lower ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A break below support at 1306.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the 38.2% level at 1281.71. Trend line resistance is now at 1343.92, with a push above that targeting the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1358.83.

Forex_Dollar_Clinging_to_Trend_Support_SPX_500_Recoils_Sharply_Lower__body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Clinging to Trend Support, SPX 500 Recoils Sharply Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices testing above resistance at 103.89, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Confirmation of a break on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 105.67. Support is seen at a rising trend line set from mid-January, now at 102.11, with a reversal below that targeting the December 27 high at 100.73.

Forex_Dollar_Clinging_to_Trend_Support_SPX_500_Recoils_Sharply_Lower__body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Clinging to Trend Support, SPX 500 Recoils Sharply Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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