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Dollar Tries to Build on Gains, SPX 500 Rejected at 2013 High

Dollar Tries to Build on Gains, SPX 500 Rejected at 2013 High

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Tries to Extend Gains After Support Bounce
  • S&P 500 Recoils from 2013 High – Is a Top in Place?
  • Gold Signals Turn Lower, Crude Oil Lingers at Support

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to push higher after producing the strongest gain in a month yesterday as the greenback recoils from support at a rising trend line set from September 2012. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 10614 exposes the 38.2% level at 10673. The trend line is now at 10551.

Forex_Dollar_Tries_to_Build_on_Gains_SPX_500_Rejected_at_2013_High_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Tries to Build on Gains, SPX 500 Rejected at 2013 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are pulling back from resistance at 1851.40, the 2013 high. Near-term support is at 1830.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis targeting the intersection of a rising a rising trend line set from October and the 38.2% level at 1813.00. Alternatively, a push above resistance aims for the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1861.80.

Forex_Dollar_Tries_to_Build_on_Gains_SPX_500_Rejected_at_2013_High_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Tries to Build on Gains, SPX 500 Rejected at 2013 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013, hinting at a turn lower ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A break below support at 1306.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the 38.2% level at 1281.71. Trend line resistance is now at 1345.46.

Forex_Dollar_Tries_to_Build_on_Gains_SPX_500_Rejected_at_2013_High_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Tries to Build on Gains, SPX 500 Rejected at 2013 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 101.63, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line set from mid-January, with negative RSI divergence arguing for weakness ahead. A break below this barrier exposes the 100.53-73 area, marked by the 23.6% level and the December 27 high. Near-term resistance is at 103.41, the February 24 high.

Forex_Dollar_Tries_to_Build_on_Gains_SPX_500_Rejected_at_2013_High_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Tries to Build on Gains, SPX 500 Rejected at 2013 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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