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Dollar Returns to 17-Month Support, SPX 500 Looking Vulnerable

Dollar Returns to 17-Month Support, SPX 500 Looking Vulnerable

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Pulls Back to Test Key Trend Line Support
  • S&P 500 Chart Warning of Ebbing Upside Momentum
  • Gold Still Looks Vulnerable as Crude Oil Tests Support

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices recoiled from resistance at 10598, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a close below the 23.6% level at 10568 putting the spotlight on a major trend line set from September 2012 (now at 10545). A further below that eyes the February 17 low at 10520. Alternatively, a reversal above 10598 targets the 50% retracement at 10623.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_17-Month_Support_SPX_500_Looking_Vulnerable_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Returns to 17-Month Support, SPX 500 Looking Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to test resistance at 1847.90, the 2013 closing high. Near-term support is at 1830.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis targeting the intersection of a rising a rising trend line and the 38.2% level at 1813.00. Alternatively, a push above resistance aims for the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1861.80. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints a turn lower is ahead.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_17-Month_Support_SPX_500_Looking_Vulnerable_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Returns to 17-Month Support, SPX 500 Looking Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices began to pull back as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below trend line resistance set from April 2013. Breaking below rising trend line support (now at 1325.25) initially exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1295.85. Trend line resistance is now at 1336.61, followed by the February 17 high at 1339.85.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_17-Month_Support_SPX_500_Looking_Vulnerable_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Returns to 17-Month Support, SPX 500 Looking Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 101.63, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line set from mid-January. A break below this barrier exposes the 100.53-73 area, marked by the 23.6% level and the December 27 high. Near-term resistance is at 103.41, the February 24 high.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_17-Month_Support_SPX_500_Looking_Vulnerable_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Returns to 17-Month Support, SPX 500 Looking Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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