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Dollar Eyes 2-Month Support, SPX 500 at Risk of Renewed Selling

Dollar Eyes 2-Month Support, SPX 500 at Risk of Renewed Selling

2014-02-11 03:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Sinks to Two-Month Support Shelf
  • S&P 500 Hinting at Renewed Weakness Ahead
  • Crude Oil May Be Carving Out a Double Top

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are testing below support at 10642, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below this barrier targets the 10617-20 area, marked by the 100% Fib and a horizontal support shelf dating back to mid-December 2013. A further push below this boundary exposes the 123.6% expansion at 10592. Alternatively, a reversal above the 61.8% level at 10658 aims for the underside of a rising channel set from November 2013, now at 10670.

Forex_Dollar_Eyes_2-Month_Support_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Eyes 2-Month Support, SPX 500 at Risk of Renewed Selling

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from late October (now at 1803.80), hinting a reversal lower may be ahead. Near-term horizontal pivot support is at 1773.40, with a break below that targeting a trend line established from February 2013 at 1744.90. Alternatively, a move through resistance eyes a familiar barrier in the 1809.60-20.60 area.

Forex_Dollar_Eyes_2-Month_Support_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Eyes 2-Month Support, SPX 500 at Risk of Renewed Selling

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are probing above resistance at 1276.22, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis initially exposes the 50% level at 1288.05. Alternatively, a reversal below support marked by the 23.6% Fib at 1261.59 aims for a rising trend line established from early January, now at 1248.37.

Forex_Dollar_Eyes_2-Month_Support_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Eyes 2-Month Support, SPX 500 at Risk of Renewed Selling

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Put in a Long-Legged Doji candlestick below resistance in the 99.92-100.19 area marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion and the December 27 close, hinting a reversal lower may be ahead. Near-term support is at 99.05, the 38.2% level, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% Fib at 97.97. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance initially aims for the 61.8% expansion at 100.78.

Forex_Dollar_Eyes_2-Month_Support_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Eyes 2-Month Support, SPX 500 at Risk of Renewed Selling

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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