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Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

2014-02-05 11:46:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices started to edge higher as expected after forming a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. The bulls failed to push through horizontal pivot resistance at 10718 however, recoiling to retest support in the 10661-71 area (marked by the bottom of a rising channel set from November and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). A break lower initially exposes the 38.2% Fib at 10602. Alternatively, a reversal above 10718 aims for the January high at 10756.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to test support at a rising trend line set from February 2013 (now at 1741.70). This barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1744.60. A break downward initially targets the 100% level at 1725.40. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 61.8% level at 1756.50 on a daily closing basis sees the next upside barrier at 1766.20, the 50% Fib.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at 1267.71, a support-turned-resistance level set from early October. Breaking below support in the 1235.57-43.35 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and a rising trend line, exposes the 38.2% level at 1208.88. Alternatively, a reversal above 1267.71 targets the January 27 high at 1278.72.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices edged lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 96.31 exposes the 38.2% level at 94.92. Alternatively, a move back above trend line support-turned-resistance at 98.18 eyes the January 30 high at 98.56.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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