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Dollar Soars to Three-Month High, SPX 500 Still Vulnerable

Dollar Soars to Three-Month High, SPX 500 Still Vulnerable

2013-12-19 13:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Breaks Higher, Sets a New Three-Month High
  • S&P 500 Rebounds But Outlook Still Favors Weakness
  • Gold Prices on Pace to Negate Bullish Reversal Signs

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rose as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A break of resistance at 10685, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 50% level at 10723. Pushing further above that exposes the 61.8% Fib at 10760. Alternatively, reversing below 10685 aims for 10612, a former range bottom.

Forex_Dollar_Soars_to_Three-Month_High_SPX_500_Still_Vulnerable_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Soars to Three-Month High, SPX 500 Still Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded from support in the 1773.90-78.90 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the October 30 swing high. Buyers are now poised to test resistance at 1813.10, the record high set on November 29. A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern continues to warn of a top in the works however, with only a close above resistance negating the setup. In such a scenario, the next level of topside resistance comes in at 1823.80 (38.2% Fibonacci expansion).

Forex_Dollar_Soars_to_Three-Month_High_SPX_500_Still_Vulnerable_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Soars to Three-Month High, SPX 500 Still Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are working to negative the potential Head and Shoulders setup identified earlier in the week. Sellers are testing below support at 1210.35, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a close beneath this barrier exposing the 50% level at 1192.62. A turn back above 1210.35 sees the first major layer of resistance at 1260.84.

Forex_Dollar_Soars_to_Three-Month_High_SPX_500_Still_Vulnerable_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Soars to Three-Month High, SPX 500 Still Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are probing back above the 98.00 figure but a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern remains valid and continues to argue in favor of the downside scenario. Support is in the 95.36-74 area, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and the November 6 high. A further push below that eyes 93.90, the 23.6% Fib. Resistance is at 98.74, the October 28 high.

Forex_Dollar_Soars_to_Three-Month_High_SPX_500_Still_Vulnerable_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Soars to Three-Month High, SPX 500 Still Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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