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US Dollar Retesting November Top, SPX 500 Begins Reversal

US Dollar Retesting November Top, SPX 500 Begins Reversal

2013-12-03 02:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Returns to Retest November Swing High
  • S&P 500 Wedge Completed, Hinting at Deeper Losses
  • Crude Oil Eyes the Upside After Channel Top Break

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected from resistance in the 10641-53 area marked by the November 12 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A bounce from support above 10589, the 23.6% Fib retracement, has put resistance back in focus. A break upward aims for the 38.2% expansion at 10839. Alternatively, a move below 10589 eyes the 38.2% retracement at 10544.

Forex_US_Dollar_Retesting_November_Top_SPX_500_Begins_Reversal_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Retesting November Top, SPX 500 Begins Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke lower as expected, completing a Rising Wedge chart formation and exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1773.90. A break below that targets the 38.2% level at 1749.60. Wedge bottom support-turned-resistance is at 1811.30, with a move above that eyeing the November 29 high at 1813.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Retesting_November_Top_SPX_500_Begins_Reversal_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Retesting November Top, SPX 500 Begins Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke below support at 1222.06, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 38.2% level at 1201.89. This barrier is reinforced by the $1200/oz figure. A turn back above 1222.06 eyes the 14% Fib at 1234.49.

Forex_US_Dollar_Retesting_November_Top_SPX_500_Begins_Reversal_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Retesting November Top, SPX 500 Begins Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke resistance at the top of a falling channel set from late August (93.63), exposing 95.36 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 96.57. The channel top – now at 93.36 – has been recast as support, with turn back beneath that eying the November 27 low at 91.74.

Forex_US_Dollar_Retesting_November_Top_SPX_500_Begins_Reversal_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Retesting November Top, SPX 500 Begins Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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