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US Dollar May Pull Back from November Top, SPX 500 at Risk

US Dollar May Pull Back from November Top, SPX 500 at Risk

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Pull Back from November Swing Top
  • S&P 500 Downswing Hinted in Technical Positioning
  • Gold Prices Move to Retest Monthly Trend Resistance

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded from resistance-turned-support at the top of a falling channel set from July (now in the 10491-518 area) as expected. Near-term resistance is in the 10641-53 region, marked by the November 12 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A push above that targets the 38.2% level at 10839. Negative RSI divergence warns a near-term pullback may be ahead, with a move below the November 20 low at 10535 eying the channel anew.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_from_November_Top_SPX_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Pull Back from November Top, SPX 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 1808.20, the 150% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence and the outlines of a Rising Wedge chart formation reinforce the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 1798.50, the 138.2% Fib, with a break below that eyeing the 123.6% level at 1779.80. A push above resistance targets the 161.8% expansion at 1820.80.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_from_November_Top_SPX_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Pull Back from November Top, SPX 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices bounced from support at 1222.60, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. Resistance is at 1256.18, the intersection of the 23.6% Fib retracement and a falling trend line set from late October. A break above that targets the 38.2% retracement at 1276.35. Alternatively, a reversal below support eyes the $1200/oz figure and the 100% expansion at 1179.63.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_from_November_Top_SPX_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Pull Back from November Top, SPX 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continue to consolidate above the November 14 low 92.49, with positive RSI divergence hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance is in the 94.76-95.37 area, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from late August. A break above that initially exposes the 23.6% level at 97.14. Alternatively, a move below 92.49 targets the channel bottom at 89.40.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_from_November_Top_SPX_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Pull Back from November Top, SPX 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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