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Dollar Returns to November Highs, SPX 500 Clings to Support

Dollar Returns to November Highs, SPX 500 Clings to Support

2013-11-22 12:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Returns to Test November Swing High
  • S&P 500 Fighting to Hold Support Below 1800
  • Gold Vulnerable to Continued Selling Pressure

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded from resistance-turned-support at the top of a falling channel set from July (now in the 10499-527 area) as expected. Near-term resistance is at 10653, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a push above that targeting the 38.2% level at 10839. Alternatively, a reversal below support initially eyes the November 6 low at 10492.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_November_Highs_SPX_500_Clings_to_Support_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Returns to November Highs, SPX 500 Clings to Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected, completing a bearish Three Inside Down candlestick pattern. Follow-through has been lackluster however, with prices issuing a strong bounce from support-turned-resistance at 1778.10. The bearish setup needs a close above the November 18 high at 1802.40 to be invalidated however. Alternatively, a reversal below 1778.10 targets the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1765.70.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_November_Highs_SPX_500_Clings_to_Support_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Returns to November Highs, SPX 500 Clings to Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices recoiled from resistance at a falling trend line set from late October. A break below support at 1249.18, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 76.4% level at 1222.60. A reversal back above 1249.18 aims for 1270.67, the intersection of the 50% Fib and the trend line.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_November_Highs_SPX_500_Clings_to_Support_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Returns to November Highs, SPX 500 Clings to Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continue to consolidate above the November 14 low 92.49, with positive RSI divergence hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 95.37, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from late August. A break above that initially exposes the 23.6% level at 97.14. Alternatively, a move below 92.49 targets the channel bottom at 89.71.

Forex_Dollar_Returns_to_November_Highs_SPX_500_Clings_to_Support_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Returns to November Highs, SPX 500 Clings to Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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