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US Dollar Rally Poised to Resume, SPX 500 at Risk of Reversal

US Dollar Rally Poised to Resume, SPX 500 at Risk of Reversal

2013-11-15 05:32:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Appears Poised to Resume its Advance After a Correction
  • S&P 500 Looks Vulnerable After Prices Set Yet Another Record High
  • Gold, Crude Oil Technical Positioning Hints Gains May be Ahead

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back to retest resistance-turned-support at 10565, marked by the top of a falling channel set from July and a horizontal barrier in play since late September. A break below this eyes the November 6 low at 10492. Near-term resistance is at 10653, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a push above that targeting the 38.2% level at 10839.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rally_Poised_to_Resume_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Rally Poised to Resume, SPX 500 at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1790.50, 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, with a break higher targeting the 50% level at 1806.10. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum however, warning of a possible reversal in the works. Near-term support is at 1771.30, the 23.6% Fib. A reversal beneath that eyes the November 8 low at 1740.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rally_Poised_to_Resume_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Rally Poised to Resume, SPX 500 at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices started to drift higher as expected after showing a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Initial resistance is at 1294.51, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and reinforced by the top of a minor falling channel. A break above that initially exposes the 38.2% Fib at 1321.09. Near-term support is at 1261.28, the November 12 low.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rally_Poised_to_Resume_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Rally Poised to Resume, SPX 500 at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices began to edge higher as expected after putting in an Inverted Hammer candlestick above support at 93.05, the November 5 low. Positive RSI divergence bolsters the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance is at 95.85, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from late August. A break higher initially exposes the 23.6% level at 97.57. Alternatively, a move below 93.05 targets the channel bottom at 91.15.

Forex_US_Dollar_Rally_Poised_to_Resume_SPX_500_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Rally Poised to Resume, SPX 500 at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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