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US Dollar Chart Favors Gains, SPX 500 Vulnerable at Record High

US Dollar Chart Favors Gains, SPX 500 Vulnerable at Record High

2013-11-14 05:33:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Chart Positioning Favors Gains After Corrective Pullback
  • S&P 500 Sets New Record High But Bullish Momentum May Unravel
  • Gold May Be Shaping Double Bottom, Crude Oil Could Start Bounce

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back to retest resistance-turned-support at 10565, marked by the top of a falling channel set from July and a horizontal barrier in play since late September. A break below this eyes the November 6 low at 10492. Near-term resistance is at 10653, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a push above that targeting the 38.2% level at 10839.

Forex_US_Dollar_Chart_Favors_Gains_SPX_500_Vulnerable_at_Record_High_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Chart Favors Gains, SPX 500 Vulnerable at Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices cleared resistance at 1771.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 38.2% level at 1790.50. A further push beyond that eyes the 50% Fib at 1806.10. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum however, warning of a possible reversal in the works. A turn back below 1771.30 initially exposes the November 8 low at 1740.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Chart_Favors_Gains_SPX_500_Vulnerable_at_Record_High_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Chart Favors Gains, SPX 500 Vulnerable at Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, hinting at rebound ahead. Near-term resistance is at 1294.51, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and reinforced by the top of a minor falling channel. A break above that initially exposes the 38.2% Fib at 1321.09. Initial support is at 1261.28, the November 12 low.

Forex_US_Dollar_Chart_Favors_Gains_SPX_500_Vulnerable_at_Record_High_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Chart Favors Gains, SPX 500 Vulnerable at Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in an Inverted Hammer candlestick above support at 93.05, the November 5 low, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 95.85, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from late August. A break higher initially exposes the 23.6% level at 97.57. Alternatively, a move below 93.05 targets the channel bottom at 91.45.

Forex_US_Dollar_Chart_Favors_Gains_SPX_500_Vulnerable_at_Record_High_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Chart Favors Gains, SPX 500 Vulnerable at Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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