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US Dollar Breaks Out, SPX 500 Still Looking for Direction

US Dollar Breaks Out, SPX 500 Still Looking for Direction

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Upward Breakout Overturns Four-Month Down Trend
  • S&P 500 Continues to Wait for Clear-Cut Direction Cues to Emerge
  • Gold Takes Aim at October Bottom, Crude Oil Break Proves False

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher, taking out the top of a falling channel established from early to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 10623. A further push beyond that aims for the 76.4% level at 10654. Near-term support is at 10598, the 50% Fib, followed by the intersection of the channel top and the 38.2% expansion at 10573.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Out_SPX_500_Still_Looking_for_Direction_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Breaks Out, SPX 500 Still Looking for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are struggling to build lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern but the pattern remains valid absent a daily close above 1778.90, the October 30 high. Initial support is at 1747.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1728.50.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Out_SPX_500_Still_Looking_for_Direction_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Breaks Out, SPX 500 Still Looking for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke below support at 1270.67, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 61.8% level at 1249.18 (a barrier reinforced by the October 15 low at 1251.54). Pushing further beneath that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 1222.60. Alternatively, a turn back above 1270.67 targets the 38.2% expansion at 1292.15.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Out_SPX_500_Still_Looking_for_Direction_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Breaks Out, SPX 500 Still Looking for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Yesterday’s upside breakout looks to have been overturned. Prices are now testing support at 92.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the bottom of a falling channel set from late August (now at 91.69). Near-term resistance is at 95.36, the November 6 swing high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Out_SPX_500_Still_Looking_for_Direction_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Breaks Out, SPX 500 Still Looking for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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