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US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower

US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Finds Interim Chart Support After Clearing April Bottom
  • S&P 500 Technical Setup Continues to Warn of a Pullback Ahead
  • Gold Expected to Continue Higher After Clearing Fib Resistance

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support in the 10416-24 area, marked by April’s shelf support and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, to expose the 50% level at 10374. A further push beneath that eyes the 10323-31 region, defined by the June 1 2012 swing high and the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, a reversal back above 10424 targets the 23.6% expansion at 10468.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalls_at_Chart_Support_SPX_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered as expected after showing a Spinning Top candlestick at support marked by a rising trend line set from late February. Buyers are now testing resistance at 1754.40, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, with a Harami candlestick pattern warning a pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1729.00, the 76.4% Fib.Alternatively, a push above resistance aims for the 123.6% level at 1779.80.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalls_at_Chart_Support_SPX_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1364.06, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the 76.4% level at 1390.64. Near-term support is at 1342.57, the 50% Fib. A reversal back beneath that eyes the 38.2% Fib at 1321.09.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalls_at_Chart_Support_SPX_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continued to move lower as expected, taking out support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (98.86) to expose the bottom of a channel set from late August (now at 96.57). A break below that aims for the 50% Fib at 94.73. A Doji candlestick warns of indecision however and hints a bounce may be ahead, with a reversal back above 98.86 eying the September 14 2012 swing top at 100.40.

Forex_US_Dollar_Stalls_at_Chart_Support_SPX_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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