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Dollar Stuck at June Low as SPX 500 Marks Critical Break

Dollar Stuck at June Low as SPX 500 Marks Critical Break

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Continues to Tread Water at June Swing Bottom
  • S&P 500 Breaks Trend Support Set from November 2012
  • Gold Prices Lacking Clear Direction Above $1300/oz Mark

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above support at 10469, the June swing bottom, hinting a move higher is ahead. Positive RSI divergence bolsters the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance is at 10536, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% level at 10591.

Forex_Dollar_Stuck_at_June_Low_as_SPX_500_Marks_Critical_Break_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Stuck at June Low as SPX 500 Marks Critical Break

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke major trend line support set from November 2012, stalling at a secondary barrier set from late February. Continued selling beneath that eyes the August swing low a 1626.60. Resistance is now in the 1666.40-77.50 area, marked by the underside of the broken trend line as well as a horizontal pivot level (1672.40) and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that exposes the 38.2% level at 1693.20.

Forex_Dollar_Stuck_at_June_Low_as_SPX_500_Marks_Critical_Break_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Stuck at June Low as SPX 500 Marks Critical Break

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continue to hover below resistance at a falling trend line set from late August, now at 1324.46. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1337.32, with a break above the latter level targeting the 50% Fib at 1355.70. Horizontal pivot support is at 1275.51.

Forex_Dollar_Stuck_at_June_Low_as_SPX_500_Marks_Critical_Break_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Stuck at June Low as SPX 500 Marks Critical Break

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are wedged between support at 100.88, a horizontal pivot dating back to April 2012, and the underside of a rising channel set from early July (104.94). This is reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from the August 28 swing high. A break upward aims for the underside of a rising trend line set from mid-April (107.45). Alternatively, a push through support initially targets the $100.00/barrel figure.

Forex_Dollar_Stuck_at_June_Low_as_SPX_500_Marks_Critical_Break_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Stuck at June Low as SPX 500 Marks Critical Break

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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