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US Dollar, SPX 500 Positioning Still Warning of Reversals

US Dollar, SPX 500 Positioning Still Warning of Reversals

2013-10-08 02:48:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

  • Candle Pattern Hints US Dollar May Rebound from June Low
  • S&P 500 Shows Possible Reversal Signal at Critical Trend Line
  • Gold Prices Continue to Tread Water Above $1300/oz Figure

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above support at 10469, the June swing bottom, hinting a move higher is ahead. Positive RSI divergence bolsters the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance is at 10536, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% level at 10591.

Forex_US_Dollar_SPX_500_Positioning_Still_Warning_of_Reversals_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar, SPX 500 Positioning Still Warning of Reversals

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing above rising trend line support set from November 2012, hinting a rebound is ahead. Initial resistance is at 1695.50, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% level at 1711.20. Alternatively, a reversal below the trend line (1672.60) and the 61.8% Fib retracement (1667.70) exposes the 76.4% mark at 1652.00.

Forex_US_Dollar_SPX_500_Positioning_Still_Warning_of_Reversals_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar, SPX 500 Positioning Still Warning of Reversals

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continue to hover below resistance at a falling trend line set from late August, now at 1328.39. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1337.32, with a break above the latter level targeting the 50% Fib at 1355.70. Horizontal pivot support is at 1275.51.

Forex_US_Dollar_SPX_500_Positioning_Still_Warning_of_Reversals_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar, SPX 500 Positioning Still Warning of Reversals

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are wedged between support at 100.88, a horizontal pivot dating back to April 2012, and the underside of a rising channel set from early July (104.90). This is reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from the August 28 swing high. A break upward aims for the underside of a rising trend line set from mid-April (107.24). Alternatively, a push through support initially targets the $100.00/barrel figure.

Forex_US_Dollar_SPX_500_Positioning_Still_Warning_of_Reversals_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar, SPX 500 Positioning Still Warning of Reversals

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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