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Dollar Flirts with 4-Month Low, SPX 500 Eyeing Trend Boundary

Dollar Flirts with 4-Month Low, SPX 500 Eyeing Trend Boundary

2013-10-04 07:20:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Selling Continues as Prices Test Below June Swing Bottom
  • S&P 500 Edging to Support Defining Rising Trend from November 2012
  • Gold Recovery Capped at Chart Resistance, Bias Favors Weakness

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support in the 10450-69 area, marked by the June 13 low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that aims for the 50% level at 10410. Initial resistance is at 10500, the 23.6% Fib, with a turn above that eyeing the 14.6% barrier at 10530.

Forex_Dollar_Flirts_with_4-Month_Low_SPX_500_Eyeing_Trend_Boundary_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Flirts with 4-Month Low, SPX 500 Eyeing Trend Boundary

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected, completing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers narrowly cleared support at 1675.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, to expose the 50% level at 1668.70. This barrier is reinforced by a rising trend line set from November 2012, with a break downward targeting the 61.8% Fib at 1661.50. A reversal back above 1675.80 eyes the 23.6% expansion at 1684.60.

Forex_Dollar_Flirts_with_4-Month_Low_SPX_500_Eyeing_Trend_Boundary_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Flirts with 4-Month Low, SPX 500 Eyeing Trend Boundary

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices rebounded from horizontal support at 1275.51 to retest a recently broken upward-sloping barrier, now at 1327.55. A break above that eyes a falling trend line set from the August high at 1334.92 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1337.32.

Forex_Dollar_Flirts_with_4-Month_Low_SPX_500_Eyeing_Trend_Boundary_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Flirts with 4-Month Low, SPX 500 Eyeing Trend Boundary

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are wedged between support at 100.88, a horizontal pivot dating back to April 2012, and the underside of a rising channel set from early July (104.81). A break higher targets a falling channel top at 105.62, followed by the underside of a rising trend line set from mid-April (106.94). Alternatively, a push through support aims for the 100.00 figure.

Forex_Dollar_Flirts_with_4-Month_Low_SPX_500_Eyeing_Trend_Boundary_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Flirts with 4-Month Low, SPX 500 Eyeing Trend Boundary

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.