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Dollar Selling Continues, SPX 500 Inching to Key Trend Support

Dollar Selling Continues, SPX 500 Inching to Key Trend Support

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Drops for Fourth Day, Issues Lowest Close in Two Weeks
  • S&P 500 Edging to Key Trend Line Support Set from November 2012
  • Gold Recovers Above $1300/oz Figure But Overall Setup Still Bearish

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support at 10500, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the June 13 low at 10469. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% Fib at 10450, with a push beneath the latter threshold eyeing the 50% retracement at 10410. The 10500 mark has been recast as near-term resistance, followed by the 14.6% level at 10530.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selling_Continues_SPX_500_to_Key_Trend_Support_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Selling Continues, SPX 500 Inching to Key Trend Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected, completing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers are now testing support at 1680.30, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that targets 1667.70, a level marked by the 61.8% retracement and a rising trend line set from November 2012. Near-term resistance is at 1699.00, the 23.6% Fib expansion.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selling_Continues_SPX_500_to_Key_Trend_Support_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Selling Continues, SPX 500 Inching to Key Trend Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices rebounded from horizontal support at 1275.51 to retest a recently broken upward-sloping barrier at 1325.79. A break above that eyes 1337.32, the intersection of a falling trend line set from the August high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selling_Continues_SPX_500_to_Key_Trend_Support_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Selling Continues, SPX 500 Inching to Key Trend Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices recovered from support at 100.88, a horizontal pivot dating back to April 2012. A narrow break above resistance at 103.68 hints the next stop is a test of 105.31, the intersection of the 38.2% level and the underside of a rising channel set from July. A reversal back below 103.68 aims for 100.88 anew.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selling_Continues_SPX_500_to_Key_Trend_Support_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Selling Continues, SPX 500 Inching to Key Trend Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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