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US Dollar Treading Water, SPX 500 Setup Hints at Bounce Ahead

US Dollar Treading Water, SPX 500 Setup Hints at Bounce Ahead

2013-09-27 04:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Treading Water, Waiting for a Directional Bias to Emerge
  • Candlestick Pattern Hints the S&P 500 May Recovery from Support
  • Gold Prices Stuck in Familiar Territory Above the $1700/oz Figure

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are trading water below rising trend line support-turned-resistance set from early April (now at 10588). Near-term support is at 10469, the June 13 low, with a push beneath that exposing the March 25 bottom at 10413. Alternatively, a reversal above the trend line targets the August 16 low at 10646.

Forex_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_SPX_500_Setup_Hints_at_Bounce_Ahead_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Treading Water, SPX 500 Setup Hints at Bounce Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected, completing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A bullish Engulfing setup now suggests a pullback may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 1717.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% level at 1732.70. Near-term support is at 1691.60, the September 25 low.

Forex_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_SPX_500_Setup_Hints_at_Bounce_Ahead_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Treading Water, SPX 500 Setup Hints at Bounce Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices found interim support at 1320.86, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is in the 1341.60-47.52 area, marked by a horizontal pivot set from mid-April and the 23.6% Fib. A break above that targets the September 19 high at 1375.13. Alternatively, a reversal through support eyes the 50% expansion at 1304.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_SPX_500_Setup_Hints_at_Bounce_Ahead_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Treading Water, SPX 500 Setup Hints at Bounce Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS A bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at 102.05, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hints a bounce may be ahead. Initial rising channel support-turned-resistance is at 105.27, with a break above that eyeing the underside of a upward sloping trend line set from mid-April (now at 106.04). Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 100.00 figure, followed by the 50% Fib at 98.91.

Forex_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_SPX_500_Setup_Hints_at_Bounce_Ahead_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Treading Water, SPX 500 Setup Hints at Bounce Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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