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Dollar Upside Breakout at Risk, SPX 500 Vaults Higher at Support

Dollar Upside Breakout at Risk, SPX 500 Vaults Higher at Support

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Threatens to Undo Last Week’s Upside Break
  • S&P 500 Finally Finds Fuel to Drive Rebound at Support
  • Gold Rebound Signaled by Bullish Candlestick Pattern

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appeared to have overturned a two-month down trend last week with a break above channel top resistanceset from July’s swing high. Initial resistance was met at 10798, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a pullback from this barrier now producing a retest of the channel top (10705). A push below that exposes the August 12 low at 10652. Alternatively, a reversal back above resistance aims for the 38.2% Fib at 10888.

Forex_Dollar_Upside_Breakout_at_Risk_SP_500_Vaults_Higher_at_Support_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Upside Breakout at Risk, SPX 500 Vaults Higher at Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices vaulted higher from support in a region bracketed by a pair of trend lines set from the November 2012, taking out the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1662.10. Buyers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 1684.10. The 1662.10 level has been recast as support, with a move below that eyeing trend line barriers at 1655.50 and 1639.30.

Forex_Dollar_Upside_Breakout_at_Risk_SP_500_Vaults_Higher_at_Support_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Upside Breakout at Risk, SPX 500 Vaults Higher at Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The formation of a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support marked by the bottom of a rising channel set from late June hints at gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1396.41, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 1419.89. Channel support is now at 1366.95.

Forex_Dollar_Upside_Breakout_at_Risk_SP_500_Vaults_Higher_at_Support_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Upside Breakout at Risk, SPX 500 Vaults Higher at Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern at resistance in the 109.66-110.32 area, marked by the February 2012 closing high and the 50% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 108.40, the 38.2% Fib, followed by the 23.6% expansion at 106.04.Alternatively, a reversal above resistance exposes the 61.8% level at 112.23.

Forex_Dollar_Upside_Breakout_at_Risk_SP_500_Vaults_Higher_at_Support_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Upside Breakout at Risk, SPX 500 Vaults Higher at Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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