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Dollar Chart Hints at Gains Ahead, SPX 500 Breakout Proves False

Dollar Chart Hints at Gains Ahead, SPX 500 Breakout Proves False

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Chart Setup Argues for Uptrend Resumption
  • S&P 500 Bounce and Upside Breakout Now Appears False
  • Gold Rebound Looks to be Corrective for the Time Being

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Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear to have overturned a two-month down trend with a break above channel top resistanceset from July’s swing high. Buyers now aim to challenge the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 10828, with a push beyond that aiming for the 61.8% level at 10870. Near-term support is at 10785, the 38.2% Fib, followed by the channel top (now recast as support at 10763).

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Hints_at_Gains_Ahead_SPX_500_Breakout_Proves_False_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Chart Hints at Gains Ahead, SPX 500 Breakout Proves False

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISYesterday’s upside reversal now appears to have been a false breakout, with prices tumbling back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1646.20) into the support region bracketed by a pair of trend lines set from the November 2012. The lower support boundary is now at 1633.30, with a push beneath that eyeing the August 28 low at 1626.60. Alternatively, a move back above 1646.20 targets the upper trend line at 1649.50.

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Hints_at_Gains_Ahead_SPX_500_Breakout_Proves_False_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Chart Hints at Gains Ahead, SPX 500 Breakout Proves False

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned lower as expected, taking out support at the bottom of a rising channel set from early August to expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1373.79. A bounce from this support is seeing prices retest the channel bottom (1427.44) as resistance, with a break above that eyeing the August 28 high at 1433.61 anew. Alternatively, a reversal below 1373.79 targets the 38.2% level at 1336.79. On balance, the bounce appears corrective for now.

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Hints_at_Gains_Ahead_SPX_500_Breakout_Proves_False_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Chart Hints at Gains Ahead, SPX 500 Breakout Proves False

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices narrowly edged above resistance at 108.40, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers are now eyeing the 109.66-110.32 region, marked by the February 2012 closing high and the 50% level, with a push beyond that targeting the 61.8% Fib at 112.23. Near-term support is at 106.04, the 23.6% expansion.

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Hints_at_Gains_Ahead_SPX_500_Breakout_Proves_False_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Chart Hints at Gains Ahead, SPX 500 Breakout Proves False

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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